Research group · CIMPA · Universidad de Costa Rica
We model how diseases spread, and what it takes to stop them.
EpiMEC is an interdisciplinary research group combining mathematical modeling, statistics, computing, biological sciences, social dynamics, and public health to study noncommunicable and infectious diseases. We are part of the Research Center in Pure and Applied Mathematics (CIMPA) at the University of Costa Rica.
What the name stands for
Three disciplines, one question: what happens next?
Modelación matemática
Compartmental, network and age-structured models of transmission, from dengue in Costa Rica to relapse in behavioral epidemics. We analyze the thresholds and bifurcations that decide whether an outbreak takes off or dies out.
Estadística
Bayesian spatio-temporal models, wavelets, approximate Bayesian computation and machine learning that turn surveillance and climate data into risk maps and forecasts with honest uncertainty.
Computación
Simulation of multilayer networks and stochastic dynamics, high-resolution climate–disease projections, and reproducible pipelines that public-health partners can run themselves.
A short film by EpiMEC
Outbreak
One cough in a market. Three weeks later, an empty street and a full ward. And a team asking how fast, how far, and what stops it. Sixty-five seconds of pixel art with an original score.
Sound on. Captions in English; Spanish version on the Spanish site.
Open the film pageResearch
What we work on
Vector-borne diseases
Dengue, Zika, chikungunya and malaria in a changing climate.
Outbreak response
Projections and policy for COVID-19 in Costa Rica.
Behavior and social dynamics
Relapse, risk perception and behavioral epidemics.
Statistics and machine learning
From surveillance data to forecasts.
Structured populations and networks
Age, patches, life stages and interconnected populations.
Ecology and One Health
Disease in animal, plant and human systems.
Publications
Recent papers
- Science in One Health · 2026High-resolution climate–dengue modeling and mid-century projections under SSP5-8.5 in Costa Rica
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B · 2026Managing populations after a disease outbreak: exploration of epidemiological consequences of managed host reintroduction following disease-driven host decline
- Journal of Biological Systems · 2026Stochastic dynamics in epidemiological models with interconnected populations
People
The team
Leads the group at CIMPA and works with collaborators in Costa Rica and the United States, and with a growing cohort of graduate and undergraduate students.
Join us
Want to work with us?
We welcome students, interns, postdoctoral fellows and researchers who want to apply modeling, statistics and computing to public-health problems.
How to apply